c-maduro-RTR3EUUU-Edwin Montilva

Venezuela may default on its debt, but Maduro will probably stay in power

13%

Countries have failed to pay their sovereign debts 22 times since 1992. But of these cases, governments changed only 13% of the time, in Russia, Ecuador, and Argentina.

Published   |  Photo by Reuters/Edwin Montilva
c-maduro-RTR3EUUU-Edwin Montilva
13%

The chance of a default in Venezuela in the next five years, implied from traders’ bets, increased from 91% in 2016 to 98% in 2017, according to Bloomberg.

c-maduro-RTR3EUUU-Edwin Montilva
13%

But history suggests that Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro will most likely stay in power.

c-maduro-RTR3EUUU-Edwin Montilva
13%

That will rile a large share of the population, who disapprove of Maduro in general and his rewriting of the constitution in particular.

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